Islamabad, 29 October 2022 (WAM) — Principles of poor people first, transparency, inclusiveness and climate resilience in assessing damage, loss and needs after unprecedented floods in Pakistan Based on this, a “better recovery” is sought. The assessment estimated total damages to exceed $14.9 billion and total economic losses to reach approximately $15.2 billion.
In a resilient manner that does not involve much-needed new investments beyond the impacted assets to support Pakistan’s adaptation to climate change and the country’s overall resilience to future climate shocks recovery and reconstruction needs are estimated at at least US$16.3 billion.
Housing; agriculture and livestock; transportation and telecommunications sectors were hit hardest at $5.6 billion, $3.7 billion and $3.3 billion respectively. Sindh was the hardest hit, accounting for nearly 70% of total losses, followed by Balochistan, Khyber, Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab.
The Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives led the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) conducted jointly with UN agencies with technical assistance from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the European Union (EU) and the United Nations. United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the World Bank. In addition to estimating damage, economic loss and recovery and reconstruction needs, the PDNA assesses broader macroeconomic and human impacts and provides a framework for developing comprehensive recovery and reconstruction frameworks. We recommend principles.
Floods affected 33 million people and killed more than 1,730 people. They particularly affect the poorest and most vulnerable districts. The situation is still changing, with stagnant flooding in many areas, widespread water-borne and vector-borne diseases, and more than 8 million displaced people currently facing health crises. . This crisis therefore risks severe and lasting consequences for lives and livelihoods. Loss of household incomes, assets, rising food prices and disease outbreaks are affecting the most vulnerable groups. Women have significantly lost their livelihoods, especially those related to agriculture and livestock.
The PDNA Human Impact Assessment highlights that the country’s poverty rate could rise by 3.7 to 4.0 percentage points, with an additional 8.4 to 9.1 million people likely to fall below the poverty line.
Multidimensional poverty could potentially increase by 5.9 percentage points, meaning an additional 1.9 million households are at risk of falling into non-monetary poverty.
Adding to the existing economic hardships facing the country, the 2022 floods are expected to have a significant negative impact on yields, which vary widely across regions and sectors. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss from the direct impact of flooding is projected to be around 2.2% of GDP in 2022. The agricultural sector is projected to shrink the most at his 0.9% of GDP. Damage and losses in agriculture will have ripple effects in industry, foreign trade and service sectors.
The government is providing immediate relief to affected communities and supporting an early recovery, while aiming to ensure macroeconomic stability and financial sustainability. In the future, production losses may be mitigated as recovery and reconstruction spending increases. Nevertheless, international support is needed to complement Pakistan’s own commitments to increase domestic revenue mobilization, conserve scarce public resources and reduce the risk of exacerbating macroeconomic imbalances. .
This report presents recommendations for developing a comprehensive recovery framework. Although the primary focus is on the affected areas, such a framework offers an opportunity to incorporate systemic resilience to natural disasters and climate change into Pakistan’s overall development plan. This tragic disaster could be a turning point in resilience and adaptation to climate change, increasing domestic revenue mobilization and improving public spending, and targeting public policies and investments to the most vulnerable. All will be at the core of future policy decisions.
ADB, the EU, UNDP and the World Bank are committed to working with the government and people of Pakistan during the subsequent recovery phases to make the country more climate resilient.