The largest single pipeline to bring Russian gas to Germany will begin annual maintenance on Monday and the flow is expected to stop for 10 days, but governments, markets and companies have been extended due to the war in Ukraine. I am worried that it may be.

The Nord Stream 1 pipeline transports 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. Maintenance will continue from July 11th to 21st.

Last month, Russia reduced its flow to 40% of the total capacity of its pipeline due to delays in the return of equipment served by Siemens Energy of Germany in Canada.

Canada said it would return the repaired turbines over the weekend, but also said it would increase sanctions on Russia’s energy sector.

Europe casts plans for Russia to extend scheduled maintenance to further limit Europe’s gas supply, disrupt winter storage, and urge government emergency measures and painfully high demands on consumers I am afraid that it may increase the gas crisis.

Germany’s economic minister, Robert Habeck, said Russia should face the possibility of stopping the flow of gas through Nord Stream 1 beyond its planned maintenance period.

“If you find small technical details based on the patterns we’ve seen, it wouldn’t be too surprising now if they could say,’I can’t turn it on anymore.’ “He said at the end of June.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed allegations that Russia was using oil and gas to exert political pressure, and maintenance outages were a regular scheduled event and no one repaired. Said he had not “invented”.

There are other large pipelines from Russia to Europe, but the flow is gradually diminishing, especially after Ukraine shut down one gas transport route in May, blaming interference by occupying Russian troops. increase.

Russia has completely cut off gas supplies to some European countries that did not respond to payment requests in the ruble.

“The last few months have shown one thing. Putin doesn’t know taboo, so we can’t rule out a complete outage of gas supply through the Nord Stream pipeline,” said Managing Director of the German Industrial Association Zukhumftgas. Said Tim Köhler.

Germany welcomed Canada’s decision over the weekend to issue a “time-limited, revocable permit” to allow equipment to be returned to the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

However, Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy and Foreign Affairs said in a statement that they were “extremely disappointed” and asked Canada to overturn the decision that it had decided to adjust the sanctions imposed on Moscow “on the whim of Russia.” Prompted.

Siemens Energy said it is working on more formal approval and logistics to install the equipment as soon as possible.

Zongqiang Luo, a gas analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy, said it was “not impossible” for Gazprom to use delays as a valid reason to extend the maintenance period.

Over the past few years, the annual maintenance period for Nord Stream 1 has lasted approximately 10-12 days and has ended on time.

It is not uncommon for additional failures to be detected during routine maintenance of the pipeline or gas infrastructure, and operators can prolong the outage if necessary.

Gazprom is not rerouting the flow through other pipelines, although it is unlikely that the gas will be completely shut down. In short, Goldman Sachs analysts say the flow is likely to drop significantly.

Germany has moved to the second phase of its three-stage emergency gas program, a step before the government distributes fuel consumption.

It also warns of a recession if Russia’s gas flow ceases. According to data from the Bavaria vbw industry group, the economic impact in the second half of this year could be € 193 billion ($ 195 billion).

“The sudden end of Russia’s gas imports will have a major impact on the German workforce … about 5.6 million jobs will be affected as a result,” said Bertram, managing director of vwb.・ Mr. Brosard said.

The effect is even wider. A complete outage will allow us to sustain European gas prices, which have already plagued industries and households, for longer.

Wholesale gas prices in the Netherlands, the European benchmark, have risen by more than 400% since July last year.

“If the Nord Stream is cut off, or if Germany loses all imports from Russia, the impact will be felt throughout Northwestern Europe,” said Rob Jetten, energy minister of the Netherlands.

In an interview with Reuters on Thursday, he said the Dutch Groningen gas field could seek help from neighboring countries even if Russia’s supply was cut off altogether, but increased production risks causing an earthquake. Said there is.

On the other hand, the outage of supply via Nord Stream 1 will hurt Russia and Western Europe as it loses profits.

Russia’s Treasury said in June that it expects to receive an additional oil and gas revenue of 393 billion rubles ($ 6.4 billion) compared to the amount expected in the budget plan.

It is expected to exceed the budget plan by 259 billion rubles in July.

According to Goldman Sachs, extended maintenance could also increase Russia’s gas production closures compared to the previously reported 9% year-on-year decline in gazprom production.

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