Washington: Regions of very warm climate, so-called “extremely hot”, with at least one day of the year when the heat index reaches 52 degrees Celsius, are expected to cover the region of the United States, home to more than 100 million people annually. will be 2053, according to new research. Conducted by the non-profit First Street Foundation, the study used peer-reviewed models built on public and third-party data in what they called his 30-square-meter “hyperlocal” scale. estimated thermal risk.
The First Street Foundation’s mission is to make climate risk modeling accessible to the public, governments, and industry representatives such as real estate investors and insurance companies. A key finding from the study is that heat above the National Weather Service’s highest category threshold, called “extreme hazard,” or 52 degrees Celsius, will affect 8.1 million people in 2023, It was expected to increase to 107 million by 2053. 13x increase.
It encompasses a geographic region extending from northern Texas and Louisiana to Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin, far inland from the warmer climates often found near the coast. The heat index, also known as the apparent temperature, is the outside air temperature that the human body actually feels when the relative humidity is combined with the air temperature.
To create the model, the research team examined satellite-derived surface and air temperatures from 2014 to 2020, allowing them to understand the exact relationship between the two measurements. This information was further explored considering elevation, how water is absorbed in the area, distance to surface water, and distance to shore.
This model was then scaled to future climate conditions using the ‘halfway’ scenario envisioned by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this scenario, carbon dioxide levels will begin to decline by mid-century, but will not reach net zero by 2100. On a “high risk” day, areas across the country are expected to experience higher temperatures with varying degrees of resilience. “Rising local temperatures will have significant impacts on communities that have not adapted to a warmer climate than normal,” the report said.
For example, a 10% temperature rise in the northeastern state of Maine could be as dangerous as a 10% temperature rise in the southwestern state of Texas, despite the higher absolute temperatures seen in Texas. there is. Miami-Dade County, Florida, was predicted to experience the most regional temperature changes, where temperatures now reach a maximum of 40 degrees Celsius seven days a year. It also warns that increased use of air conditioning, likely due to such temperature spikes, will strain energy grids and lead to more frequent and prolonged blackouts. – AFP
