OThe Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will drive the growth of 2.7 million barrels (bpd) of global oil demand per day to the growth of major importers, especially the United States, averaging 103 million in 2023. Predicted barrel / day.
According to a monthly oil market report (July 2022) released on Tuesday, the agency said crude oil spot prices rose in June, extending the rise from the previous month.
Rising futures prices and the fundamentals of the physical oil market drove the rise amid rising oil demand from refiners and some supply turmoil. The OPEC reference basket rose $ 3.85 (3.4%) and settled at $ 117.72 / b. The previous month of ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) Brent increased by US $ 5.54 (4.9%) to an average of 117.50 / b in June, while NYMEX WTI (New York Mercantile Exchange-West Texas Intermediate) increased by US $ 5.08 (4.6%). Increased and averaged. 114.34 USD / b.
Brent / WTI futures spreads widened 46 cents to an average of $ 3.16 / b. The market structure of all three major crude oil benchmarks in ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME (Dubai Mercantile Exchange) Oman was further strengthened in June, and the rapid spread of time moved into a more serious setback.
Hedge funds and other money managers have reduced their net long positions by nearly 11% on two major futures contracts. World Economics The global economic growth rate in 2022 is almost unchanged at 3.5%, and the initial forecast for 2023 is that the world economic growth rate is 3.2%.
The US GDP growth rate in 2022 will remain unchanged at 3.0%, and will continue to grow by 2.1% in 2023. Economic growth in the euro area in 2022 remains unchanged at 3.0%, and growth in 2023 is projected to be 2%. Japan is expected to grow 1.7% in 2023, following the 1.6% growth in 2022, which is the same as the previous report. China’s 2022 growth rate remains 5.1%, with 2023 GDP growth slightly lower at 5%. India’s GDP growth remains 7.1% in 2022 and is expected to grow by 6% in 2023. Brazil’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1.2%, rising to 1.5% in 2023.
In the case of Russia, the 2022 GDP growth forecast remains unchanged, showing a 6% reduction, but growth is expected to recover to 1.2% in 2023.
Consumption remains strong, especially in developed countries, with continued recovery expected, especially in the contact-intensive services sector, which includes travel and transportation activities, leisure and hospitality.
However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, ongoing pandemics, rising inflation, worsening supply chain problems, high sovereign debt levels in many regions, and the US, UK, Japan, and Eurozone. Global Oil Demand Growth in global oil demand in 2022 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment of 3.4 million barrels / day.
OECD oil demand is estimated to increase by 1.8 million barrels / day, while non-OECD is expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels / day.
Total oil demand is projected to average 130 million barrels / day. The first quarter of this year was revised higher amid higher-than-expected oil demand in major OECD consuming countries. However, oil demand in the second quarter of 2010 has been revised downwards due to the resurgence of COVID-19 in China and continued geopolitical uncertainty.
Global oil demand growth in 2023 is expected to average 103 million barrels / day at 2.7 million barrels / day, with OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) 600,000 barrels / day and non-OECD growth of 2.1 million barrels / day. / Expected to be a day.
According to the report, oil demand in 2023 is expected to be supported by still strong economic performance in major consuming countries, as well as improved geopolitical development and containment of COVID-19 in China.
Global Oil Supply Growth in non-OPEC liquid supply in 2022, despite upward revisions in China and Canada, remains largely unchanged from last month’s assessment and is now up 2.1 million barrels / day to an average of 65.7 million barrels / day. It is expected to be a day. The main drivers of annual liquid supply growth are expected to be the United States, Canada, Brazil, China, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while production is expected to decline primarily in Russia, Indonesia and Thailand. By 2023, non-OPEC liquid production is projected to increase by 1.7 million barrels / day to an average of 67.4 million barrels / day.
OECD liquid supply is projected to increase by 1.4 million barrels / day in 2023, while non-OECD is expected to increase by 200,000 barrels / day.
The main driver for 2023 is the United States, which is expected to grow 1.1 million barrels per day, followed by Norway, Brazil, Canada and Guyana. However, uncertainty from the operational aspects of US production and ongoing geopolitical development remains high. OPEC NGL (Natural Gas Liquid) and non-conventional liquids are projected to increase by 100,000 barrels / day to an average of 5.39 million barrels / day and 50 tb / d to an average of 5.44 million barrels / day in 2022. increase.
According to available secondary sources, OPEC-13 crude oil production in June increased by 234 tb / d for mothers, averaging 28.72 million barrels / day.
Demand for OPEC crude oil in 2022 remains unchanged from the previous month’s valuation, at 29.2 million barrels / day, about 1.1 million barrels / day higher than in 2021. Based on initial forecasts of global oil demand and non-OPEC supply in 2023, OPEC crude oil is expected to reach 30.1 million barrels, 900,000 barrels higher than 2022 levels, the report added.