French President Emmanuel Macron saw his hope of pushing the national agenda on Sunday humbly hit, just two months after the second reelection. What’s next?
His ally, also known as the “ensemble” (together), has so far ended up as the largest party in parliament with 234 members, according to 97 percent of the votes cast, but a majority of 289 required. Far below.
This scenario is extremely rare under the modern French presidential system, even before the 2002 constitutional amendment, which aimed to help the head of state secure a majority in parliament.
Elections do not theoretically affect France’s foreign policy, which is the president’s monopoly territory, but Macron’s domestic concerns are a constant distraction and could undermine him abroad.
The possible scenarios are:
-Form an alliance-
Work on this began on Monday morning, and Prime Minister Elizabeth Borne swore in a short speech on Sunday night.
In the midst of the biggest living cost crisis of a generation, the ruling party hastily passed an urgent bill to support low-income households before the summer vacation in August.
It will require the support of parliamentary allies, along with other important parts of Macron’s manifesto, such as welfare reforms and retirement age increases.
“Together” is most likely to reach out to France’s traditional right-wing party, the Republican Party (LR), which has won 61 seats so far, and its centre-right UDI.
“We will be the majority very quickly,” said Parliamentary Minister Olivier Belan, optimistic.
Economic Minister Bruno Le Maire said the ruling party needed “a lot of imagination” and called on parties that shared Macron’s “clear idea” to support him.
Some internal LRs, including former President Nicolas Sarkozy, are known to be in favor of working with Macron, but party leader Christian Jacob denied it on Sunday.
“As far as we are concerned, we campaigned as an opposition. We are in the opposition and stay in the opposition,” he said.
But is this probably a bargaining tactic to attract ministerial posts and other concession offers?
If an alliance is formed, Macron will have to shift to the right, but he may be able to push forward with his important tax cuts, welfare and pension reforms.
-Negotiation for each invoice-
In the absence of a formal alliance, minority governments would have to rely on opposition support for each bill.
This requires long negotiations before each bill is brought to vote-and leaves the government vulnerable to last-minute withdrawals that could lead to defeat.
Again, the Republican Party will be key, given the exclusion of support from the left-wing NUPES alliance and the far-right National Rally.
Dominique Rousseau, a constitutional expert at the University of Pantheon-Sorbon in Paris, told AFP, “Unless the opposition works with you, you can rule in the minority.”
Socialist Prime Minister Michel Rocard led a minority left-wing government from 1988 to 1991 after the right wing won the 1988 parliamentary elections.
“It was hell,” his cabinet director, Jean-Paul Juchon, was reportedly told in Le Point magazine recently.
Bourne is expected to appear in front of the new Congress and give his first speech within a few weeks and will face a highly uncertain distrust resolution that can disappoint her.
Even if a modest career civil servant passes the test, she is always vulnerable to the blame that would overthrow the government.
To pass the legislation, the French Constitution gives Macron a tool to enforce the bill, Article 49.3 of the Constitution.
This allows the prime minister to break through the legislation without parliamentary debate, but the bill is overturned if the majority oppose it within 24 hours of its use and can only be used once per parliamentary session. May be done.
“Ungovernable” said the headline of a column in the Les Echos newspaper.
As a last resort, Macron has another option if Congress is stuck and unable to form a stable government. It is to dissolve Congress and call for a new election.
However, the consequences of this are highly uncertain, with growing anger at inflation and growing support for dissident parties such as Merenceon’s French Ambowd and Le Pen’s National Rally.
It depends on who blamed the deadlock.